Students who demonstrate understanding can: Analyze and interpret data on natural hazards to forecast future catastrophic events and inform the development of technologies to mitigate their effects.
Clarification statement: Emphasis is on how some natural hazards, such as volcanic eruptions and severe weather, are preceded by phenomena that allow for reliable predictions, but others, such as earthquakes, occur suddenly and with no notice, and thus are not yet predictable. Examples of natural hazards can be taken from interior processes (such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions), surface processes (such as mass wasting and tsunamis), or severe weather events (such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods). Examples of data can include the locations, magnitudes, and frequencies of the natural hazards. Examples of technologies can be global (such as satellite systems to monitor hurricanes or forest fires) or local (such as building basements in tornado-prone regions or reservoirs to mitigate droughts).
Official wording from the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS Lead States, 2013). NGSS is a registered trademark of WestEd. Neither WestEd nor the lead states and partners that developed the NGSS were involved in the production of this page, and they do not endorse it. View on nextgenscience.org
Some disasters arrive with warning signs and some strike without notice. Students analyze data on natural hazards (where they happen, how strong they are and how often they occur) to forecast where future events are likely and to judge which technologies could reduce the damage they cause.
Volcanoes often swell, release gas and produce small earthquakes before erupting, and hurricanes can be tracked by satellite for days, so these hazards allow useful predictions. Earthquakes, by contrast, happen suddenly; scientists can map which regions are at high risk and estimate long-term probabilities, but they cannot yet predict the exact day. Data such as maps of past earthquake epicenters, tables of tornado frequency by month, or flood records help students spot patterns.
The second half of the expectation is about technology. Students connect forecasts to engineering responses: earthquake-resistant buildings, tsunami warning buoys, levees and reservoirs, storm shelters and satellite monitoring of wildfires.
Scientists can identify high-risk areas and long-term probabilities, but there is no reliable way yet to predict the day or hour of an earthquake.
Hazards follow patterns: earthquakes cluster along plate boundaries, hurricanes form over warm oceans in certain seasons, and floods repeat on floodplains.
Technology mostly reduces the impact of hazards, through warnings, stronger buildings and planning, rather than preventing the events themselves.
A so-called 100-year flood has about a 1 percent chance each year, so two can occur close together.
Over 40 years, a town recorded 10 floods that reached homes. Estimate the chance of a damaging flood in any one year, and suggest a technology to reduce the risk.
Answer: About a 25 percent (1 in 4) chance each year, which supports investing in a levee, raised buildings or a flood warning system.
Give students real data sets, such as a world map of earthquake epicenters, monthly tornado counts or hurricane tracks, and ask them what pattern they see before naming any cause. Then set an engineering challenge such as designing a structure that survives a shake table, linking forecasts to technologies.
Assessment often provides hazard data and asks students to forecast where or when an event is likely, or to justify a mitigation choice.
Original questions written for this standard. Choose an option or type your answer, then press Check. Every question has a worked explanation.
Answer: C) Earthquakes
Earthquakes occur suddenly; scientists can estimate long-term risk but not the exact time.
Answer: B) Along plate boundaries
Maps of epicenters show they cluster where plates meet and move against each other.
Answer: A) Ocean sensors linked to warning systems
Ocean sensors detect tsunami waves so warnings can be sent and people can evacuate.
Answer: 4 (also accepted: 4 years)
48 years ÷ 12 storms = 4 years between storms on average.
Answer: C) Swelling of the volcano and small earthquakes
Rising magma can make a volcano bulge and trigger small earthquakes and gas release.
Answer: levee (also accepted: a levee, levees, flood wall, floodwall)
Levees and flood walls hold back high water to protect nearby land.
Make a claim about the merit of a design solution that reduces the impacts of a weather-related hazard.
Construct an explanation based on evidence for how the availability of natural resources, occurrence of natural hazards, and changes in climate have influenced human activity.
A full lesson with slides, activities and an exit ticket on forecasting natural hazards, pitched to grades 6-8 and editable in PowerPoint or Google Slides.
Make a lesson →A printable, differentiated worksheet on MS-ESS3-2 with an answer key, ready in about a minute.
Make a worksheet →Turn forecasting natural hazards into a quiz students answer online that marks itself, with a class summary for you.
Build a test →Interior hazards like earthquakes and eruptions, surface hazards like landslides and tsunamis, and severe weather such as hurricanes, tornadoes and floods.
Data on the locations, magnitudes and frequencies of hazards, used to forecast future events and inform mitigation.